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Electrica Tool Definitions

Scenario

1.   Scenario Definitions

1.   Balanced Approach is the Tool's base scenario. Informed by a diverse set of transportation electrification experts representing a wide range of environmental, equity, labor, utility, communications, consumer, health and philanthropic organizations; the Balanced Approach incorporates all eleven factors, with more emphasis on state policy momentum and mobility and pollution inequities and slightly lower emphasis on in-state political opportunity and oil influence.

2.   Economic Development explores options to advance auto industry jobs and related economic activity. It draws from seven factors, emphasizing current and potential EV supply chain jobs, influence on federal policy, mobility and pollution inequities, and gives moderate weight to GHG emissions, EV market potential, influence on vehicle trends, and corporate influence.

 

3.   Pollution & Public Health explores the need to significantly reduce air pollution and improve public health. Particular emphasis is placed on mobility and pollution inequities (especially the underlying health and pollution sub-factors) and GHG emissions, with some emphasis on factors related to freight trucks and buses because they have significant impact on PM2.5 air pollution and related health impacts. The scenario also places a moderate emphasis on vehicle market trends and EV market potential because higher EV uptake improves air quality and health, plus utility engagement and federal policy influence (representing the ability to implement relevant policies for communities and air quality).

 

4.   Systemic Inequities builds on the Pollution & Public Health scenario and priorities (see above), but also brings in jobs to consider a just transition and good jobs to improve economic mobility in underserved communities. The scenario reflects places where action is critical to achieve change, such as federal equity champions and federal policy influence. The scenario incorporates seven factors, with heavy emphasis on mobility and pollution inequities, federal influence (including champions such as those supporting equity-related legislation), an increase in jobs (equitable transition), utility interest (investment in underserved communities), and overall emissions.

 

5.   Federal Policy Influence explores the states with greater opportunity to shape federal clean transportation policy. It emphasizes congressional leadership, jobs and economics, mobility and pollution inequities, alongside select sub-factors within state policy momentum and in-state political opportunity.

 

6.   Light Duty (Car/SUV) Focus highlights opportunities specifically to advance electrification of passenger cars, SUVs and light trucks. The Scenario uses all eleven factors but the subfactors related to medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses are excluded.

 

7.   Freight Focus explores opportunities specifically to advance electrification of freight trucks. Higher priority is placed on GHG reductions and mobility and pollution inequities because freight trucks (often diesel) emit both CO2 and other emissions such as PM2.5 that contribute to health impacts. It includes all eleven factors but subfactors related to light-duty vehicles and buses are excluded. Comparted to the Bus Focus scenario, EV jobs are elevated, interest by large companies and corporate commitments are elevated.

 

8.   Bus Focus explores opportunities specifically to advance electrification of buses. Higher priority is placed on GHG reductions and mobility and pollution inequities because diesel buses emit both CO2 and other emissions such as PM2.5 that contribute to health impacts. It includes all eleven factors but subfactors related to light-duty vehicles and freight trucks are excluded. Compared to the Freight Focus scenario, higher weight is put on mobility and pollution inequities and federal policy influence, interest by cities is elevated (as city buses can be electrified most quickly) and Electrify America funding is included.

 

9.   Freight & Bus Focus explores opportunities to advance the electrification when focusing on freight trucks and buses (all medium- and heavy-duty vehicles). It combines the Bus Focus and Freight Focus scenarios, and includes all 11 factors. Highly rated factors are GHG reductions, EV supply chain jobs, mobility and pollution inequities, federal influence, policy momentum, and EV market potential. Moderate weights are put on utility engagement, corporate influence, political opportunity. Low weights are put on vehicle market trends influence and oil influence. It excludes subfactors related to light-duty vehicles.

One-Factor Scenarios

​Explore scenarios one factor at a time: "I isolated this one factor to explore...". 

Policy Momentum: How the current policy environment and interest affects the potential for new electrification policies or successful implementation of current policies. More info.

Political Opportunity: How the in-state political climate affects vehicle electrification policy.

Federal Policy Influence: How much the state plays a role in influencing federal legislative and administrative transportation policy. More info.

Transport GHG Emissions: How big the potential emissions reductions are from vehicle electrification, plus fleets that can quickly transition to EVs. More info.

EV Market Potential: How large of a market could rapidly transition to EVs, considering the size of the vehicle market, EV model availability, incentives, charging infrastructure, and presence of early- and mid- adopters.

Vehicle Market Trends Influence: How influential the state's market is in setting trends and influencing vehicle preferences in the region or nationwide. More info.

EV Supply Chain Jobs: Potential job and economic benefits of electrification (and associated political support) that the state is already reaping from the existing EV supply chain and manufacturing, and the potential to realize from transportation electrification. More info.

Utility Engagement: Electric utilities' commitments to transportation electrification and climate abatement (represented by renewable portfolio or targets), as utilities can be partners in supporting and expending political capital on electrification. More info.

Corporate Influence: The potential to harness corporate influence to drive policy in the state or directly increase EV deployment considering concentration of major corporations in the state, major movers of goods, and corporate commitments to electrification. More info.

Mobility & Pollution Inequities: Severity of systemic mobility and pollution inequities in state and level of commitment to programs, policies or political momentum to address inequities considering policy champions, existing programs to address inequities and utility and Public Utility Commission actions. 

Oil Influence: How influential the state's oil industry is in opposing electrification policy. More info.

Global Settings

2. Global Settings​​

EV Momentum: Choose whether to consider EV market momentum as rationale to prioritize a state. When EV Momentum is "on", you are able to see which states rise to the top if you assume that states' past success on vehicle electrification correlates with higher likelihood of future success and greater ambition. The tool does this by including past policy wins, commitments, and EV market achievements in the states' scores, and results in higher ranking for those states with greater existing vehicle electrification momentum. When EV Momentum is "off', the tool ignores past policy wins and market achievements, allowing you to focus on other issues of interest and consider how states stack up with a clean slate.

Oil Opposition: Choose whether to consider oil opposition as rationale to prioritize a state or avoid a state. When this factor is set to "Direct", the tool prioritizes states where oil opposition is more influential. When this factor is set to "Reverse", the tool ranks highly states with less influential oil opposition.

State Sorting: Choose how to sort individual factor results - by the State Summary order or individually. When State Sorting is set to "STATE SUMMARY", the charts for individual factors display states in the same order as the overall State Results chart. When Sort by State Results is set to "INDIVIDUAL FACTORS", each individual factor chart displays states in descending order for that individual factor. The "INDIVIDUAL FACTOR" setting allows you to isolate a group of highly ranked states for an individual factor, whereas you would use the "STATE SUMMARY" position to see how the overall top ranked states score for individual factors.

Factor and Subfactor Definitions

Using the sliders: Moving the slider to the right/high indicates higher relative importance of the factor (or sub-factor).

** means EV momentum OFF will remove this factor (* means it removes some sub-factors).

+ means when the Oil Opposition toggle is ""Direct"", the tool prioritizes states where oil opposition is more influential.

 

We refer to light duty vehicles as cars and SUVs, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks as trucks.

Policy momentum

 

Policy momentum**: How the current policy environment and interest affects the potential for new electrification policies or successful implementation of current policies.

SUB-FACTORS

ZEV state or pursuing ZEV*: The presence of Section 177 ZEV policy in the state, current pursuit of such policy, or indication of interest.

Clean truck policy or interest*: The passage of Advanced Clean Trucks policy, multi-state truck MOU participation, or publicly stated intent to pursue ACT.

EV supportive policies*: The overall state support for transport electrification based on the number of EV policies.

EV targets*: States that have set light duty or heavy duty EV targets and goals, score based on the level of ambition and speed for market adoption.

EV roadmap*: States that have established EV or EV charging roadmaps or plans for vehicle electrification transition.

Public EV fleet funding*: The amount of state funding allocated to electric vehicle public fleets and charging infrastructure, including funding from the Volkswagen settlement.

EV purchase collaborative*: Number of electric vehicles cities have committed to buy through participation in EV purchasing collaboratives.

City-level commitments*: Overall climate and clean energy commitments by cities. Transportation focused initiatives are scored higher than other climate programs. Includes Green and Healthy Streets, American Cities Climate Challenge, Carbon Neutral Cities, Smart City Challenge, and Climate Mayors.

Transportation Climate Initiative*: Participation in the Transportation Climate Initiative process. Score based on a state’s level of advancement through the process.

Political Opportunity

Political opportunity:

How the in-state political climate affects vehicle electrification policy.

SUB-FACTORS

Clean transport political favorability: How favorable state governor, legislature, agencies, courts, and Public Utility Commission are toward vehicle electrification.

Auto industry influence: Auto industry's influence on state politics as measured by the percentage of tax revenue generated through auto industry activities including manufacturing, selling, and maintenance.T

Oil import reduction potential: The opportunity to reduce oil imports and keep energy expenditures inside the state economy, as measured by the quantity of net oil imports.

Federal Policy Influence

Federal policy influence:

How much the state plays a role in influencing federal legislative and administrative transportation policy.

SUB-FACTORS

State leadership in Congress: Congressional delegation represented in the highest levels of leadership and influence in Congress.

Congressional committees: Congressional delegation represented in moderate levels of leadership in Congress, namely committee leadership or membership among 27 key committees critical to clean transportation policy.

Auto industry Congress influence: Auto industry campaign contributions to Congressional delegation, as proxy for how a supportive auto industry might influence federal transportation policy. Includes industry associations and individual manufacturers, dealers, and other auto industry.

Auto industry union jobs: The number of auto union jobs, as a proxy for that state's support in Congress for union jobs.

Oil industry political influence: Oil industry's campaign contributions to Congressional delegation, including oil companies and political action committees.

Swing state: Whether a state is considered a swing state for upcoming federal elections.Oil industry political influence.

Congress transport votes: Members of Congressional delegation have supported recent federal clean transportation bills, related environment or transportation bills, or Senate confirmation of pro-clean transportation appointees.

Congress climate votes: Members of Congressional delegation have supported recent federal climate legislation or Senate confirmations of pro-climate appointees.

Pro-climate cities in red states: GOP leaning states (as determined by party preference and public polling) with pro-climate cities, using scores for cities participating in EV Purchase Collaboratives and Cities with Climate Commitments.

Transport GHG Emissions

Transport GHG emissions: How big the potential emissions reductions are from vehicle electrification, plus fleets that can quickly transition to

 

SUB-FACTORS

Transport GHG emissions: Transportation sector CO2 emissions.

Heavy-duty GHG emissions: Medium- and heavy-duty on-road transportation sector emissions, as represented by the quantity and distance of freight moved annually.

Transport GHG emissions density: The level of transportation sector CO2 emissions weighted by size of a state, in order to better highlight geographically small states with high levels of emissions.

Private bus fleets: The number of buses in the private bus fleet, which represents nearly 60% of buses on the road, representing potential emissions reductions from private bus fleets.

Public cars/SUV & truck fleets: The number of cars and trucks in public fleets, as a proxy for potential emissions reductions from public fleets.

Public transit bus fleets: The number of buses in public transit fleets, which represent about 40% of buses on the road, as proxy for potential emissions reductions from public transit.

EV Market Potential

EV market potential*: How large of a market could rapidly transition to EVs, considering the size of the vehicle market, EV model availability, incentives, charging infrastructure, and presence of early- and mid- adopters.

 

SUB-FACTORS

Car/SUV market: Number of vehicles registered, as proxy for the light-duty market potential. Light-duty vehicles (cars, SUVs, light-trucks) represent about 91% of the total number of vehicles registered. 

Truck market: Number of registered trucks (medium- & heavy-duty), which represents the truck market potential. Includes Class 3b & higher (above 10,000 lbs), including tractor trucks

 

Early & mid adopters: Demographics that would suggest near-term higher adoption rates, based on the number of people who own detached houses and have household incomes $75,000 and higher (this proxy is short-term and based on studies of housing and income demographics of EV buyers to-date).

 

EV car sales*: EV car sales in the previous year (currently 2020).

EV car sales/person *: EV car sales in the previous year, relative to the state's population.

# car EV models*: Number of car/SUV models available.

# truck EV models*: As a proxy for truck models (medium/heavy duty) available, and to represent level of accessibility of trucks and the near-term market potential, score derived from medium/heavy duty policy adoption.

Incentives - cars*: Amount of financial incentive available for car/SUV purchase.

Incentives - trucks*: Number of heavy duty truck incentives available.

Public charging*: Number of Level 2 and DC fast chargers publicly available.

Public charging/person*: Number of Level 2 and DC fast chargers publicly available per person; this offers another measure of availability of charging, especially in highly populated areas.

Vehicle Market Trends Influence

Vehicle market trends influence: How influential the state's market is in setting trends and influencing vehicle preferences in the region or nationwide.

 

SUB-FACTORS

Truck manufacturing: Number of heavy-duty vehicle assembly and supplier facilities, as proxy for heavy duty vehicle industry presence and influence.

Car/SUV manufacturing: Number of light-duty vehicle assembly and supplier facilities in the state, as proxy for light-duty vehicle industry presence and influence.

Truck sales: Gross sales of trucks (Class 4+) vehicles by truck dealerships, as proxy for influential heavy-duty markets.

Vehicle ownership rate: Presence of strong car culture and influence, as indicated by the number of vehicles owned per person.

Cities - high vehicle ownership: Presence of major metro areas with strong car culture and influence, as indicated by the average number of vehicles per household.

Auto shows: Local and regional influence of auto shows, as indicated by major US auto show locations.

Upmarket brand presence: Number of upmarket brand store sites (Whole Foods, Lululemon, Urban Outfitters, Apple), as proxy for locations that could also be influential near-term for EV market trendsetting. This proxy is short-term only and based on income demographics of early EV buyers.

EV Supply Chain Jobs

EV supply chain jobs: Employment and economic benefits of electrification (and associated political support) that the state is already reaping from existing EV supply chain and manufacturing presence and the potential to realize new vehicle-related jobs from transportation electrification.

SUB-FACTORS

Auto workforce % of state jobs: Total EV and non-EV auto industry workforce as a percentage of total state jobs, as proxy for potential EV jobs.

 

Car/SUV manufacturing jobs: Current number of people employed by light-duty vehicle (EV and non-EV) and charging infrastructure manufacturers and suppliers. 

Truck manufacturing jobs: Current number of people employed by heavy-duty truck (EV and non-EV) and charging infrastructure manufacturers and suppliers. 

Car/SUV EV & charging manufacturing: Current number of people employed by light-duty electric vehicle and charging infrastructure manufacturers and suppliers. 

Truck EV & charging manufacturing: Current number of people employed by heavy-duty electric vehicle and charging infrastructure manufacturers and suppliers. 

Utility Engagement

Utility engagement*: Electric utilities' commitments to transportation electrification and climate abatement (represented by renewable portfolio or targets), as utilities can be partners in supporting and expending political capital on electrification

SUB-FACTORS

Utility EV policy*: Number of utility electrification policies, as proxy for level of utility engagement to-date.

Utility EV investment: Level of investment proposed or approved , as proxy for the near-term utility engagement in vehicle electrification.

Renewable energy goals*: State clean power portfolio (or Renewable Portfolio Standard) percentage goal, as proxy for presence of utilities that must engage on renewable energy now and therefore are more likely to also engage on electrification either through interest or regulation.

Renewable energy mix today: Current zero-emissions percentage of electricity mix, as proxy for level of proactive behavior by utilities toward increasing their renewable energy mix and potential bandwidth (political will and capacity) to turn attention to transportation electrification.

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Corporate Influence

Corporate influence*: The potential to harness corporate influence to drive policy in the state or directly increase EV deployment considering concentration of major corporations in the state, major movers of goods, and corporate commitments to electrification.

SUB-FACTORS

Fortune 1000 headquarters: Where Fortunate 1000 companies are headquartered, as proxy for where corporations are well positioned to accelerate state or federal electrification policy.

US & foreign auto maker headquarters: Where US and foreign auto manufacturers are headquartered, as proxy for where automakers support auto-industry supportive electrification policies.

Corporate commitments*: Number of corporate sites with commitments to EVs, including workplace charging.

Freight value $: Economic value of freight moving through the state, as proxy for level of political influence by shipping, logistics, warehousing and trucking industries.

Electrify America & VW settlement $*: Level of investment by Electrify America and through VW settlement funding.

Mobility & Pollution Inequities

Mobility & pollution inequities*: Severity of systemic mobility and pollution inequities in state and level of commitment to programs, policies or political momentum to address inequities considering policy champions, existing programs to address inequities and utility and Public Utility Commission actions.

SUB-FACTORS

Transport equity champions: The number of members of congress sponsoring or leading on transportation equity or climate justice policy.

Utility equity invest*: Level of investment proposed by utilities in underserved communities, as proxy for level of readiness and interest by utilities to support equitable clean mobility.

Govt programs focus equity: Whether local and regional governments are in the Alliance for Racial Equity, as proxy for the level of readiness of government to pursue supportive equitable mobility policy.

% poverty: Percentage of people living below 185% of the poverty line, as proxy for prevalence of lower income communities that are disproportionately impacted by transportation pollution and inequitable access to clean transportation.

% communities of color: Percentage of people of color or Latinx, as proxy for prevalence of communities that experience systemic racism, disproportionate impacts of transportation pollution, and inequitable access to clean transportation.

People in air quality non-attainment: Number of people living in air quality non-attainment areas.

Asthma: Number of adults with asthma, as proxy for the number of people exposed to poor air quality from transportation sector pollution.

Transport pollution deaths: Deaths attributed to transportation pollution in a sub-set of cities and states.

Goods movement hubs: Daily number of trucks traveling through communities neighboring freight hubs.

Ports $: The economic activity generated at ports, as proxy for the economic and political importance of ports to the nearby communities and state.

School bus emissions: Number of children transported by school bus among the largest 120 school districts in the country.

Oil Influence

Oil influence: How influential the state's oil industry is in opposing electrification policy.

SUB-FACTORS

Oil production+: Oil production, as proxy for oil producer presence and influence. With the oil opposition toggle DIRECT, states with high levels of oil production rate highly.

Oil refining+: Oil refining capacity, as proxy for level of oil industry presence and influence. With the oil opposition toggle DIRECT, states with high levels of oil refining capacity rate highly.

EV fees+: Size of current registration fees applied only to electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles, as proxy for the level of influence by opposition groups. With the oil opposition toggle DIRECT, states with high EV fees rate highly.

Oil opposition group budget+: Annual budgets of oil-related or oil-funded organizations. With the oil opposition toggle DIRECT, states with higher opposition budgets rate more highly.

Oil opp. social media +: Number of social media followers of major oil-related entities. With the oil opposition toggle DIRECT, states with more oil opposition followers rate more highly.

3.     Factor and Subfactor Definitions

Policy momentum
Political Opportunity
Federal Policy Influence
Transport GHG Emissons
Vehicle Market Trends Influene
EV Market Potential
EV Suppy Chain Jobs
Utility Engagement
Corporate Influence
Mobility & Pollution Inequities
Oil & Gas Influence

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